Google Stock Is In Downward Spiral
I hadn’t been paying much attention to this lately but right around Christmas I was starting to notice that Google’s stock was in a bit of a slump. Like the rest of the world who watches this type of thing, I think I was amazed at how the Goog’s stock seemed completely immune to anything around it. And all the time I kept thinking how things were back in the late nineties when everyone said there was no tech bubble and then all of a sudden, the world (i.e. Silicon Valley) was flush with casualties.
It wasn’t like I was predicting anything (not that anyone would listen or that I even had a forum to blabber on at the time) but it just seemed that something had to give at some point. Unless I’m mistaken, I seem to remember hearing that blowhard stock “guru” Jim Cramer saying something like Google will become the next Berkshire Hathaway. Never split the stock and in years to come it will be worth thousands of dollars per share.
Well Jimbo may still be right but from the high of about $732 bucks per share in November I believe, Google’s stock has plunged. Yes that is the word folks, PLUNGED, to a new low of about $432 on March 6.
A 40% decline in 5 months? Holy Recession Batman! Let’s get real here: With the economy slumping (I’m not one to tout a recession), and business suffering doesn’t it make sense that people (i.e. business) will spend less on advertising? And since Google’s entire business model is based on advertising……well, you figure it out.
I have always wondered how a company could base it’s sole income stream on ONE item which for the most part Google has done. Their Adwords and Adsense models make them billions of dollars. But that’s all they have. Okay, okay, so you’re saying, “Yeah, well GM, Ford, Toyota et al only have one item as well, cars.” Yeah, but they have a lot of cars. When gas was cheap(er) and nobody gave a damn, SUV’s were huge moneymakers. The profit margins were huge on these gas guzzlers. When gas started rising, and the SUV sales took a dive, they ramped up the more fuel efficient smaller vehicles.
What does Goog have to prop it up? I wonder.
Look, I think what they’ve done is amazing. Hell, I use Adsense on every website I own so I’m not complaining. But a couple questions come to mind:
1 - If Google’s stock continues this downward trend, will they still be able to recruit the best and brightest with stock option promises?
2 - How does this effect the mindset of someone working at G who right now has options that are worthless?
I have no doubt Google will remain strong and Microsoft/Yahoo notwithstanding, probably the leader in search for the foreseeable future. But it is amazing to me how the recent past keeps getting forgotten time and time again.
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